With the 2026-27 NBA regular season underway, the trade deadline on 11 February is already on the horizon, and several contenders need to decide whether to add talent over the next three months. Injuries have hit the league hard early on, with the Oklahoma City Thunder and Minnesota Timberwolves both losing major cornerstones for an extended period. Those Western Conference contenders must decide whether to fill out their rotations now or survive without their stars until the postseason. Meanwhile, after a shaky start, the defending champion New York Knicks may need to rethink their run back to the Finals.
Our NBA insiders break down what 10 playoff contenders lack, the constraints shaping their trade options and what lies ahead as the deadline approaches. The order below is based on the top 10 teams in the Basketball Power Index (BPI) as of Tuesday, 10 November.
1. San Antonio Spurs (10-2)
Projected record: 62-20. Chance to make the conference finals: 58.5%.
What they’re missing: The Spurs are on a winning streak even without any games from Tobias Harris, their major offseason acquisition. It is hard to find a hole in one of the league’s most complete, well-rounded rosters. Their depth, however, could use improvement. They would not want to rely on the likes of Jordan McLaughlin if one of their three guards suffers an injury, as happened in the playoffs last year.
What they can pull off: The Spurs have the draft assets to swing a deal, but that does not mean general manager Brian Wright will be aggressive. After one of the best records last year, San Antonio chose to stand pat. If they do look to move, they have an unprotected 2027 first-round pick from Atlanta and three additional tradeable first-rounders. They also hold swap rights in 2028 (via Boston, if Nos. 2-30), 2030 (the most favourable of San Antonio, Dallas and Minnesota, if Nos. 2-30) and 2031 (via Sacramento). They have 12 tradeable second-rounders.
Watch whether San Antonio is willing to take back salary that stretches beyond 2026-27. With Victor Wembanyama’s extension starting next season and sixth man Keldon Johnson a free agent, San Antonio is only $11 million below the luxury tax in 2027-28.
What’s next for San Antonio? The Spurs plan to play out the season with the roster they have, despite owning plenty of assets to make a move. They appear somewhat thin at centre behind Luke Kornet, but the staff has been pleased with the progress of rookie Tarris Reed Jr. in such a short time. Over the next two years, the roster could become expensive, with the club expected to sign Stephon Castle to an extension this summer, followed by an extension for Dylan Harper in the summer of 2028. The Spurs are also already facing a numbers problem because of all the depth they have accumulated.
“There’s not enough minutes to go around,” coach Mitch Johnson said. “Unfortunately, I’ve got to play the bad guy and I’m not always going to be right. But I’ve got to make tough decisions in regards to only 240 minutes.”
2. Oklahoma City Thunder (8-4)
Projected record: 58-24. Chance to make the conference finals: 43.5%.
What they’re missing: The Thunder are missing several rotation players, and their activity at the trade deadline will depend heavily on when, or whether, they can project those injured players to return. Nique Clifford is another body on the perimeter, but he does not seem like a playoff difference-maker. General manager Sam Presti may still be searching for another defensively minded wing who can backfill some of the production of the injured Jalen Williams and Cason Wallace.
What they can pull off: The 8 November trade for Clifford does not stop Oklahoma City from making another deal. Although the Thunder do not have a roster spot, they do have the $5.4 million expiring contract of Nikola Topic and the $4.9 million salary of former first-round pick Thomas Sorber. Because they are over the first apron, Oklahoma City cannot take back additional salary if either player is traded. The Thunder also have three trade exceptions ($5.8 million, $11.3 million and $17.7 million), seven tradeable first-round picks (including three in June) and 19 second-rounders.
What’s next for Oklahoma City? Presti will be patient. The Thunder addressed their need for defensive-minded wing depth with a buy-low trade for 2025 first-round pick Clifford, parting with a pair of second-round picks for a player with two seasons left on his rookie deal. Oklahoma City will explore the market for upgrades over the next few months, but a big splash would be a surprise. It is not Presti’s style: the Thunder have not made a major midseason trade since acquiring Kendrick Perkins in 2011. Presti has plenty of picks that could fuel a blockbuster, but he also has to prioritise future finances with the goal of keeping a contender-quality supporting cast around Shai Gilgeous-Alexander throughout his prime.
3. Boston Celtics (10-2)
Projected record: 59-23. Chance to make the conference finals: 57%.
What they’re missing: The Celtics rank only 22nd in defensive rebounding rate, an anomaly for a team coached by Joe Mazzulla. Boston has ranked 11th or better in this category in every other year under Mazzulla, according to Cleaning the Glass. The issue should be fixable given the roster, with Mitchell Robinson and Jayson Tatum, an excellent rebounder for his position, expected to chip in. If the problem persists, Boston might look for another big body to help on the glass in the playoffs.
What they can pull off: Last season, the Celtics were one of the league’s more active teams ahead of the deadline. Four separate trades dropped Boston below the luxury tax and created a $27.7 million trade exception. That exception is available until February, but the first apron hard cap prevents Boston from using more than $10 million of it. This year, the Celtics do not have to trim payroll but must watch the luxury tax, which they are currently $1.75 million below. Boston’s most valuable asset could be its open roster spot. Because they are below the first apron, the Celtics can sign a waived player with a preexisting salary of $15 million or more.
What’s next for Boston? Finding another big man could be high on the list. The Celtics have learned from the Knicks not to overtax Robinson, who plays well in spurts, and keeping him around the 20-minute mark is ideal. Keeping Tatum and Paul George fresh will be paramount, especially with Tatum still working his way back to his new normal in his first full season following an Achilles injury in 2025. The $27 million trade exception could go a long way, particularly if Boston views the Eastern Conference as winnable.
4. Houston Rockets (9-3)
Projected record: 55-27. Chance to make the conference finals: 23.8%.
What they’re missing: Only two Rockets perimeter players are shooting better than 37% from three this season, and one of them is Bogdan Bogdanovic, whose injury history suggests he may not be safe to count on for the full season. Kevin Durant and Reed Sheppard should improve as the season continues, but Houston might benefit from adding another shooter in the meantime.
What they can pull off: The Rockets have two appealing trade assets in this upcoming draft: the right to swap with Brooklyn and an unprotected first-round pick via the Phoenix Suns. Houston also has four additional first-round picks available to trade, a $13.3 million trade exception and an open roster spot. The Rockets can use the full exception and still exceed the first apron.
What’s next for Houston? Despite owning plenty of assets and a trade exception, Houston will likely continue, as it did last season, to refrain from making moves. Its roster has been revamped with the offseason additions of Bogdanovic and Marcus Smart, along with the return of point guard Fred VanVleet. The overall size of the roster gives Houston flexibility to use multiple lineups and combinations without sacrificing production. VanVleet’s absence last season sped up the development of Sheppard, Amen Thompson, Tari Eason and Jabari Smith Jr.
Still, Houston could use some depth at centre, given injury concerns over Steven Adams (right calf strain) and Clint Capela (right ankle sprain), who are both expected to return soon. Unless the Rockets encounter a deal they cannot refuse, they are likely to stand pat.
5. New York Knicks (6-5)
Projected record: 54-28. Chance to make the conference finals: 42%.
What they’re missing: The Knicks had, by definition, a championship-level roster last season, and the only player they lost was Robinson. Andre Drummond has been a serviceable replacement so far, and it is difficult to imagine New York finding many better options on the trade market. If one presents itself, however, that is the clearest spot on the roster worth improving.
What they can pull off: The Knicks faced the same limitations last season but still traded for backup guard Jose Alvarado. This season, New York is $809,000 below the second apron and cannot sign a player until 14 February. The Knicks can use Pacome Dadiet’s $3 million expiring contract in a trade but cannot take back more salary. New York also cannot sign a waived player with a preexisting salary of $15 million or more. The Knicks have one first-round pick and 12 second-rounders available to trade.
What’s next for New York? The Knicks are putting off contract issues until the offseason, and flexibility is limited, especially with owner James Dolan saying he will not go into the second apron. If Mikal Bridges continues to struggle, will New York start to canvass the league? He is owed over $116.5 million across the next three seasons, including a player option in 2029-30. The hope is that he turns it around, as he did last season, because this team needs shot creation and shotmaking.
6. Los Angeles Lakers (11-2)
Projected record: 54-28. Chance to make the conference finals: 13.9%.
What they’re missing: The Lakers have the best offence in the league but rank in the bottom half at the other end of the floor. Specifically, they are 28th in defensive rebounding rate, ahead of only the Bulls and Suns. Kevon Looney is not the answer at backup centre behind Walker Kessler, and although Sandro Mamukelashvili is a decent option, the Lakers belong on the long list of teams that could use another competent bruiser on the bench.
What they can pull off: The Lakers depleted their draft assets in the Kessler sign-and-trade, which left them with the right to swap their 2028 first-rounder as their most significant remaining draft asset. They have three tradeable second-rounders, from 2031 to 2033, two of which belong to the Washington Wizards. From a roster standpoint, Los Angeles could package the contracts of Jaden Hardy ($6 million) and Jarred Vanderbilt ($12.4 million) for a player earning $26 million or less. Although hard-capped at the first apron, the Lakers are $8.1 million under and can take back additional salary. They have 15 guaranteed contracts and would need to waive or trade a player to open a roster spot.
What’s next for Los Angeles? After exploring trade packages to clear a roster spot during the preseason, the Lakers ultimately waived former first-round pick Dalton Knecht to cut down to the maximum 15-player allotment. Coach JJ Redick has largely stuck to a 10-man rotation, with Vanderbilt overtaking Looney in the depth chart when Mamukelashvili is not in as the stretch five. Redick still has to see what he has in second-year forward Adou Thiero and rookie Cameron Carr, although neither figures to solve the problem of the Lakers ranking second-to-last in the league in rebounding.
As one Eastern Conference executive put it, “so long as Doncic, [Austin] Reaves and Kessler stay healthy, the Lakers will be fine.” Reaves is now dealing with a left heel injury that forced him to exit the team’s win over the Bucks on Wednesday night.
7. Minnesota Timberwolves (8-3)
Projected record: 54-28. Chance to make the conference finals: 26%.
What they’re missing: Entering the season, the Timberwolves’ big issue seemed likely to be frontcourt depth, after they traded Julius Randle and Naz Reid in the offseason. However, second-year Frenchman Joan Beringer has done an excellent job backing up his countryman Rudy Gobert, and Trey Lyles, after a season out of the NBA, has performed surprisingly well at backup power forward. Does Minnesota trust that will continue, or would it rather pursue a sure thing at the position?
What they can pull off: The Timberwolves were one of the big winners last February when they acquired Ayo Dosunmu. Because of that trade and the offseason addition of LaMelo Ball, Minnesota’s draft assets are limited. They have no first-round picks available and one second-rounder (2030 via Memphis, if Nos. 51-60). One player to watch is Cody Williams, who is on an expiring $6 million contract after Minnesota declined his team option for next season. Apron rules prevent Minnesota from taking back more salary than it sends out, so the return of Donte DiVincenzo, who tore his Achilles during the 2026 playoffs, could be the Timberwolves’ big addition at the deadline.
What’s next for Minnesota? The Timberwolves must bide their time until Anthony Edwards returns. Minnesota should be pleased with how it has played since its franchise guard underwent knee surgery after just four games to start the season. The Timberwolves are 5-2 without Edwards and boast the NBA’s top-ranked defence. The schedule will get tougher, but they have held up well in the face of a potentially season-altering injury. Ball continues to settle in after an offseason trade, and fellow newcomer Jonathan Kuminga has made a good first impression after so-so stops with the Warriors and Hawks. Meanwhile, Dosunmu has been excellent as Edwards’ stand-in. With Edwards projected to return as soon as late December or early January, Minnesota should have plenty of time to evaluate its full roster before the deadline.
8. Detroit Pistons (7-3)
Projected record: 55-27. Chance to make the conference finals: 44.4%.
What they’re missing: The Pistons’ greatest need is the same as it has been for the last 18 months: a second scorer and playmaker alongside Cade Cunningham. Duncan Robinson is the only other perimeter player averaging more than 12 points per game. Daniss Jenkins has done an admirable job as a backup, but he is not a championship-level No. 2 option. Luckily, Detroit has plenty of trade assets it could use for a fellow star.
What they can pull off: The Pistons are among a handful of teams that control each of their next seven first-round picks. They can trade up to four and can swap in each season. Detroit also has 11 seconds available. Despite $90 million committed to Cunningham and Jalen Duren this season, the Pistons are $14.5 million under the first apron hard cap. However, building a trade package without including a starter or key rotation piece could be difficult. To match salary, Detroit has only the sizeable contracts of John Collins ($17 million), Robinson ($16 million) and Isaiah Joe ($11.3 million), none of which have guaranteed salary beyond this season. To use its $5.2 million or $15 million trade exception, Detroit would need to open a roster spot.
What’s next for Detroit? The Pistons look poised to be among the top teams in the East during the regular season, even without a move at the deadline. A year ago, with a young team playing better than expected, Detroit chose not to rock the boat. This front office has favoured patience in letting its young core grow, so it is worth watching whether an opportunity for a bigger swing presents itself and how the Pistons handle it this time.
9. Philadelphia 76ers (9-3)
Projected record: 49-33. Chance to make the conference finals: 21.1%.
What they’re missing: The 76ers lack proper championship-level depth at centre behind Joel Embiid, who is the single greatest injury risk for any team in the title picture. Lineups with LeBron James at centre can work on occasion, but that is not a permanent solution. With Ariel Hukporti out for the season after tearing his Achilles, Philadelphia needs a better backup big man ahead of Jabari Walker and Adem Bona.
What they can pull off: The 76ers have an open roster spot and Hukporti’s $3.4 million expiring contract. Because they are $1.8 million under the first apron hard cap, they can take back up to $5.2 million in salary. They also have 10 second-round picks available to use in a trade. Philadelphia can sign a player to its open roster spot from 4 December.
What’s next for Philadelphia? Coach Nick Nurse said that Dominick Barlow, who has missed the entire season with a back injury, is expected to be cleared for on-court activities by mid-November. The Sixers are thin in the frontcourt, with Bona missing time with a neck injury, Hukporti out for the season and Tacko Fall missing time with a quad injury. For now, the Sixers have been excited by Walker’s play as the team’s backup centre. Walker also missed time with a knee injury, but he has proven to be the most consistent backup centre option this season. His best game came in a win over the Bulls, when he finished with nine points and 11 rebounds.
“He probably deserves to play more, to be honest,” Nurse said this season.
10. Cleveland Cavaliers (6-6)
Projected record: 47-35. Chance to make the conference finals: 11.8%.
What they’re missing: Cleveland ranks 29th in the league in defensive turnover rate, according to Cleaning the Glass, ahead of only the woeful Milwaukee defence. The unit is still decent overall, thanks to Evan Mobley and Jarrett Allen near the rim. However, Cleveland’s backcourt looks very exploitable in the playoffs, as even reserves Sam Merrill and rookie Meleek Thomas are more offensively minded. The Cavaliers are in desperate need of another perimeter stopper.
What they can pull off: Five players (Mobley, Allen, Donovan Mitchell, Peyton Watson and James Harden) combine to earn 85% of the cap this season, which makes a trade difficult unless Cleveland is willing to part with Allen or reserves Merrill and Jaylon Tyson. The Cavaliers are $45,000 below the first apron this season, with no tradeable first-round picks and only one second-rounder available. Cleveland can fill its open roster spot from 9 April.
What’s next for Cleveland? After Harden took Darius Garland’s place at last season’s deadline, the Cavaliers brought back their core four, believing continuity will make a difference. But Cleveland is currently leaning on younger players such as Tyson, Thomas and Tyrese Proctor to fill out its bench. Watch whether that trio can keep producing, or whether the Cavs look for moves similar to last season’s deadline, when they added veterans Dennis Schroder and Keon Ellis to fortify their depth.