The Denver Nuggets are suddenly facing an alarming question at the start of 2026-27: who are they if Nikola Jokic isn’t consistently playing at an MVP level? So far, Denver has looked like a mediocre team still searching for its first statement win over top-quality competition.
For most of the past decade, the Nuggets’ championship hopes have depended on their ability to surround Jokic with enough talent. That search has produced memorable twists and turns, including the evolution of Jamal Murray into a bona fide sidekick, the franchise-changing trade for Aaron Gordon in 2021, and the emergence of Christian Braun and Bruce Brown during the 2023 title run. Since that championship, the capped-out Nuggets have gradually lost talent and have failed to reach the conference finals in the past three seasons.
The constant focus on Denver’s supporting cast has been a by-product of Jokic’s dependability. The Serbian centre has been the NBA’s most consistent star of the 2020s, finishing first or second in Most Valuable Player voting for six straight seasons and ranking first in Player Efficiency Rating for six straight seasons. He has also carried Denver to eight straight playoff appearances and four straight 50-win campaigns.
Why this isn’t the same Joker
Jokic seemed poised to extend his run of exceptional basketball. He is still only 31 and coming off a season in which he averaged a triple-double and captained the NBA’s most efficient offence. In September, he claimed the top spot on the annual NBA Rank projection of the league’s top 100 players, and he told reporters that he plans to sign a contract extension with the Nuggets next summer.
When Jokic found Cameron Johnson with an audacious behind-the-back, cross-court pass for a corner three-pointer during an October preseason game, it was tempting to buy back into Denver’s chances and forget April’s demoralising first-round exit against the Minnesota Timberwolves. There was no obvious reason to expect Jokic’s level of play to diminish, yet he has struggled at times to live up to his high standard during the first two weeks of the regular season. If that trend continues, Denver will face an existential crisis.
While all small-sample-size caveats apply, Jokic has made a slow start. Through seven games, he is shooting 50.4% from the field, his worst mark since 2017-18, and a career-low 21.9% from deep. His 26.1 Player Efficiency Rating is his lowest since his rookie season in 2015-16, and his 23.4 points per game is his lowest output since 2019-20.
The underlying numbers raise further concern. Jokic’s average shot distance is 12 feet, tied for the longest of his career, because just 16% of his shots have come from the basket area, a career low. Meanwhile, 25% of his shots have come from beyond the arc, nearly a career high. His free throw and offensive rebound rates have also dropped sharply from last season and are tracking towards career lows.
Jokic remains the only player in the league averaging 23 points, nine rebounds and nine assists, but his efficiency and forcefulness are clearly lagging behind his box score production. For now, he ranks sixth league-wide in PER and 15th in win shares, after ranking first and second, respectively, in those metrics last season.
A dominant Jokic led Denver to a blowout win over the Toronto Raptors on Wednesday, but he has not maintained that level of impact on winning or his command of the paint on a night-to-night basis. As a result, the Nuggets’ offence has not looked like the juggernaut fans have come to expect. The Raptors game, in which Jokic posted 32 points, 10 rebounds and 11 assists, offered hope that he is simply pacing himself for a long campaign and that his poor outside shooting will prove to be a short-term slump.
Nuggets coach David Adelman expressed confidence this week that Jokic’s play will pick up with time. “Some of the shots we’re so accustomed to seeing that [Jokic] never misses, whether it’s a jump hook or a 15-footer, all those kinds of things, they’re coming,” Adelman said after Monday’s loss to the Portland Trail Blazers.
“This is a six-game sample size of one of the most efficient offensive basketball players that’s ever lived,” he added. “I’ll die on that sword.”
Why these aren’t the same Nuggets
Denver’s top-heavy roster was not built to compensate for any slippage from Jokic. The Nuggets are 4-3 to start the season, including an 0-3 record against teams with winning records, and they have already heard boos from their home crowd at Ball Arena. “I think those fans who booed us … they’re not welcome anymore,” Jokic said after Denver’s overtime win against the New Orleans Pelicans in the home opener.
Jokic’s individual struggles have exposed the flaws around him. Gordon is not moving well after missing more than half of last season through injury, Johnson continues to underperform, and a new-look second unit headlined by 37-year-old DeMar DeRozan has been outscored on a regular basis.
With Jokic drifting further from the hoop on offence, the Nuggets ranked 26th in points in the paint before their demolition of the Raptors. That could become a serious problem, because Denver also ranks 28th in three-point attempts per game. Adelman wants improvement in both areas. He said he will continue making a “concerted effort” to establish Jokic in the post, while also encouraging his role players to “get up more 3s.”
The Nuggets’ long-standing winning formula, an elite offence compensating for a so-so defence, looks shaky. Despite a strong start from Murray, Denver’s offence ranks 11th heading into Thursday. The Nuggets have not ranked outside the top 10 since Jokic was a rookie.
“It’s too much responsibility for [Jokic and Murray],” Adelman said on Monday. “I have extreme trust in the others. They have to have trust in themselves.”
Adelman’s role requires him to keep faith in his role players, but he is working with a severely untested bench. Rookie forward Trevon Brazile has been a pleasant surprise, but budget-friendly backups Marvin Bagley III, Bryce Hopkins, Alpha Diallo and Cam Whitmore have combined for only a handful of playoff appearances. Offseason additions DeRozan and Tyus Jones are both several years removed from having any real postseason impact.
All these new faces are a reminder of how few key figures remain from the 2023 championship team. Denver fired general manager Calvin Booth and coach Michael Malone less than two years after winning the title. Jokic, Murray, Gordon, Braun and seldom-used big man Zeke Nnaji are the only players left from the 2022-23 roster.
Denver sought to replace Brown, Michael Porter Jr. and Peyton Watson with cheaper alternatives, given that Jokic, Murray and Gordon all hold significant contracts, but those efforts have largely failed. The Nuggets’ recent draft history has also featured more misses than hits. Rather than replenishing Jokic’s supporting cast with waves of young talent, Denver has settled for a new batch of free agent fliers every summer. Russell Westbrook, Tim Hardaway Jr., Jonas Valanciunas, DeAndre Jordan and Reggie Jackson have all drifted in and out of Denver in recent years, making little impact.
Taken together, it is no surprise that Denver’s bench ranks 28th in scoring and 23rd in net rating. That is a real drag for Jokic to overcome, even if he recaptures his top form.
Why Denver lacks real options to improve
Denver’s cap situation is also set to tighten. If Jokic signs an extension next summer, worth up to $360 million over five years, he will join Murray and Gordon on the long-term books. Both are under contract through 2028-29. Braun’s five-year, $125 million extension, which has just kicked in this season, is another quiet drain on the Nuggets’ finances.
Denver would struggle to get value in trades involving Gordon and Braun, given their salaries, and it cannot afford to part with Murray, given his strong play and track record. None of the Nuggets’ younger players have performed well enough to attract a significant trade return.
More importantly, if Jokic’s impact continues to lag, the Nuggets will need to consider negotiating rather than simply handing him a maximum extension with a record average annual value of $72 million.
A five-year extension would carry Jokic through his age-36 season, and there is no recent precedent for a centre playing at an MVP level that late in his career. Tim Duncan led a balanced San Antonio Spurs team to the 2014 championship in his age-37 season, but he earned only $10.4 million on a team-friendly discount that year, a fraction of the maximum salary available to him.
Jokic’s slow start has made it clear that Denver lacks a succession plan should its franchise centre suffer meaningful age-related decline or a significant injury. These Nuggets were built to support Jokic as best they could, on the assumption that he would once again handle the heavy lifting. No rising superstar is waiting to take the baton, and Denver has already traded its first-round picks in 2027, 2029 and 2032.
For Jokic and the Nuggets, something will have to give. There is no plausible path for Denver to re-sign Jokic to an enormous extension, make the necessary improvements to his supporting cast and avoid the NBA’s second apron penalties. The Milwaukee Bucks reached a similar crossroads with Giannis Antetokounmpo last summer. They chose to trade him to the Miami Heat and pursue a full rebuild.
To this point, Jokic has resisted pressure to overhaul the roster and has given no indication that he wants to leave Denver. While superstars such as LeBron James, Kevin Durant and Antetokounmpo have changed teams in recent years in hopes of improving their championship chances, Jokic could always follow the Dirk Nowitzki model. Nowitzki led the Dallas Mavericks to the 2011 title, then spent eight more seasons with the franchise even though he never won another playoff series.
Like Dallas with Nowitzki, Denver has plenty of good reasons to reward Jokic’s loyalty as he ages. But this season has offered a glimpse of the organisation’s murky future. Jokic can only mask everything that is troubling the Nuggets when he is playing at an MVP level. When he is not, Denver’s whole plan starts to fall apart.